The coronavirus break out could resemble a smouldering fire whose coal could “flare up” again – or it might have burnt out like a firework, according to one specialist.

The remarks were made on a YouTube live- stream from a group of researchers attempting to supply independent analysis of the COVID-19 crisis.

Professor Karl Friston, a prominent neuroscientist, was describing how a second wave of infections may occur when lockdown limitations are alleviated.

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He discussed: “One can frame the instant concern as how would a firefighter react to a fire.

” There are 2 situations one could think about: you believe you have actually put the fire out and the firefighters go home – and yet there are little coal that will flare up again if they leave too soon. This would be the flare-up example.”

However the University College London specialist stated another likelihood was that “we’ve witnessed a firework or an explosion and all that can be burned has been burned”.

He stated: “It most importantly depends upon the divide in between are we handling a fire that’s been partly put out and we need to keep returning and quashing the coal to avoid a second flare up.

“Or, have we actually witnessed what has happened and now we have entered this window of opportunity where the explosion has happened and there’s going to now be a replenishing of combustible material as we lose immunity.”

Prof Friston stated it was not yet understood if resistance to the infection could be lost however that it was crucial to understand how lots of people are most likely to be immune after the existing “first wave”.

He stated a random antibody test of around 5,000 people would provide researchers “a very good handle” on the concern.

Prof Friston is among 12 specialists from various clinical fields on the so- called “rival SAGE”, a referral to the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergency situations.

SAGE is the group encouraging the federal government on its coronavirus reaction and is co- chaired by Sir Patrick Vallance and Prof Chris Whitty, familiar faces from the day-to-day Downing Street rundowns.

Nevertheless, the group has actually been implicated of not being transparent and open in how it runs.

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Professor Friston is among 12 people on the ‘competing SAGE’ group

The names of its members were launched on Monday after weeks of pressure from critics, however the information of their conversations have actually been kept.

The “rival” group was set up by Sir David King, the federal government’s chief science consultant from 2000 to 2007.

It will take a look at matters such as how effective screening and tracing can be attained, what social distancing steps will be required in future, and whether protecting of susceptible groups has actually sufficed.

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